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What is the probability that exactly one sibling is affected

3.31 What is the probability that exactly one sibling is affected?

A/ Let

A = {older child is affected},

B = {younger child is affected}

P(A) = 0.5

P = 1- 0.5= 0.5

P(B) = 0.5

P() = 1- 0.5 = 0.5

Let P(C1) represents probability that exactly A has affected;

P(C1) = P(A ) = (0.5 × 0.5) = 0.25

P(C2) represents probability that exactly B has affected;

P(C2) = P( B ) = (0.5 × 0.5) = 0.25

Let P(C) represents probability of exactly one sibling is affected, then:

P(C) = P(C1) + P(C2) = 0.25 + 0.25 = 0.5 = 50%

 

3.32 What is the probability that neither sibling is affected?

A/

Let P(D) represents probability that neither sibling is affected

P(D) = P( ) = (0.5 × 0.5) = 0.25 = 25%

3.33 Suppose the older child is affected. What is the probability that the younger child is affected?

A/

P (B I A) = P (B A) / P (A)

= P (B) * P(A) / P (A)

= 0.5 × 0.5 / 0.5

= .5

= 50%

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