Part 6: findings to counter your theory of change
Evidence B, Week 2 Individual Assignment: Evaluation Plan Part 1
Your first and last name
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Part 1: Your Problem of Interest
During Weeks 1 and 2, you engaged in brief activities to think about a problem of interest to you. Now you will decide on a problem that you will develop in two individual assignments in the course (this week and Week 5). In Week 6, you will share your evaluation plan with your group.
Consider a timeline to make an impact of 3-5 years
Be fairly specific about the intended beneficiaries of the program or policy -- the population that will be served
Example: You may be running a program, or planning a policy, or work in an organization that is involved with a specific social program. Or you may have minimal or no involvement (no answer is wrong here, this is simply context-setting for this assignment).
| I am currently working for an NGO that is attempting to address this problem by working with the state government to implement Stubble burning and vehicular emissions in Delhi. |
Part 2: Your Causal Effect Question
Here you will succinctly identify the program, policy, or intervention, and be specific about the outcome of interest.
Part 3: Priors
This part of the assignment asks you to document the priors you have about the causal effect question you wish to evaluate.
| Priors A - You must complete this part. | |
| A - Your assumptions and intuitions |
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Part 4: Your Theory of Change
Build out your Theory of Change here, in at least 4 steps in a causal chain.
The first item should involve the core components of the program or policy you seek to evaluate. The last item should be the overall impact you wish to achieve with the program or policy.
| Your Theory of Change |
| North Indian farmers are not aware of the alternative methods to burning stubble. |
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| If farmers are provided with information about the alternatives to burning stubble, they will be more likely to adopt these methods. |
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| If farmers adopt alternative methods to burning stubble, there will be less air pollution in North India. |
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| Less air pollution will lead to improved air quality and health outcomes in North India. |
Part 5: Indicators for Your Theory of Change
Complete at least 3.
Part 6: Findings to Counter Your Theory of Change
Impact evaluations can result in findings that may tell you a program is not working as intended, or is not reaching the people it is intended to reach. What evidence would cause you to reject some or most of your theory of change? Think hard and honestly about this question.
Example: From the Zambia theory of change:
| Evidence: A survey reveals that North Indian farmers are already aware of the alternative methods to burning stubble. The main reasons for burning of residues are low cost and labour scarcity. Total cost of cultivation of paddy per acre was found to be marginally lower for burning of straw and stubbles method as compared (₹ 38411/acre) to incorporating other management techniques (₹ 41845/acre) method. |
| How it would affect your priors/theory of change: This would suggest that North Indian farmers are not interested in adopting alternative methods to burning stubble. |
This would suggest that air pollution in North India is not significantly reduced after farmers adopt alternative methods to burning stubble |
| How it would affect your priors/theory of change?: This would suggest there are other more significant causal factors such as vehicular emissions or construction activities responsible for air pollution in North India. |
